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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.